THE IMPACT OF OIL EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1981-2022)

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ABSTRACT

This study empirically examime the impact of oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria from 1981-2022. Being a time series data, we adopted the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. The next step was to test for the stationarity of the data using Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test. Then Johansen (1988) technique was used to establish if the non-stationary variables are cointegrated. Further, ECM is employed to correct any form of disequilibrium in the short run. The result of stationary test reveals thay the model is fairly well specofied amd could be used for policy analysis. The model specified economic growth measured by real gross domestic product as dependent variable while total production of crude oil, crude oil export, crude oil price and exchamge rate stand for other independent variables. Empirical investigations revealed all the variables are statistically significant in the long run at 5%. It was found that variables such as crude oil export and crude oil price have a positive influence on Rgdp while total production of crude oil was found to be negatively related to growth. This study therefore recommend that the government should design appropriate policies and strategies capable of achieving diversifications of the economy through export promotion and also ensuring exchange rate stability.

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