ABSTRACT
The relentless growth of the human population comes at a significant cost to our precious natural resources. Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria, situated in the North Central region, serves as the focal point of this study. The primary objective was to evaluate the long-term projection of land resource utilization in Abuja, spanning an extensive period of more than two centuries, from 1987 to 2200, utilizing cutting-edge remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) methodologies. For the assessment, USGS Landsat data were acquired for the years 1987 and 2022, subjected to rigorous preprocessing, and subjected to classification procedures employing ENVI 5.2 software. The resultant data was subsequently imported into ARC-GIS software for comprehensive analysis. The outcomes derived from the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) classification spanning 1987 to 2022 formed the foundation for predicting the LULC dynamics in Abuja for the years 2050, 2100, 2150, and 2200, using the Markov and CA-Markov models integrated into TerrSet 17.0 software. Findings from the study reveal a loss of 1,761.86 square kilometers of forested land during the 35-year period from 1987 to 2022. Concurrently, built-up and barren lands exhibited rapid expansions, encompassing an additional 881.75 square kilometers and 74.05 square kilometers, respectively. By 2050, the built-up area is anticipated to further expand to 1,140.85 square kilometers, up from the 957.92 square kilometers observed in 2022. This growth trajectory persists into 2100, 2150, and 2200, with projected areas of 2,920.68 square kilometers, 4,286.39 square kilometers, and 5,184.34 square kilometers, respectively. The study predicts significant reduction in forested lands and shrublands over the ensuing years. The surge in both population and urban development in Abuja stands as a primary driver behind deforestation, escalating urban heat, and the concomitant diminishment of critical ecosystem services and biodiversity. Consequently, it is strongly recommended that the Abuja Urban Planning Authority initiates measures to promote the cultivation of ornamental trees, shrubs, and green spaces, with the aim of reinstating carbon sequestration within the ecosystem, thereby contributing to the mitigation of global warming.
