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ABSTRACT
Decline curve analysis is a technique applied in petroleum engineering, particularly in reservoir management for the forecasting of future production rates, based on a large past production history. It involves the application of deterministic models (such as the Arps model) which makes no room for the uncertainties present in the reservoir system. This Project takes a probabilistic approach which would take into account the uncertainties inherent in a deterministic estimation of EUR for any reservoir system. It aims to develop a probabilistic estimate of Ultimate recovery in terms of P90, P50 and P10, which would show the confidence levels of reserve present in a reservoir system, with P90 being proven reserves, P50 probable reserves and P10, possible reserves.
