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Abstract
This study delves into the intricate relationship between oil price fluctuations and macroeconomic variables in Nigeria, employing various analytical methods to extract insights. Firstly, a regression analysis revealed a relatively weak positive association between Crude Oil Price (COP) and Real Gross Domestic Product Growth (RGDP), suggesting a limited impact of higher oil prices on economic growth. Second, a regression analysis of Exchange Rate (EXR) and RGDP unveiled a statistically significant positive relationship, emphasizing the role of exchange rate stability in attracting foreign investments. Third, a regression analysis of Inflation Rate (INF) and RGDP found a weak and statistically insignificant negative connection, highlighting the importance of inflation control. Fourth, regression analysis of Export Rate (EXP) and RGDP indicated a slightly negative and statistically insignificant relationship, emphasizing the need for careful export promotion. Additionally, an Error Correction Model (ECM) was employed to understand economic deviations from equilibrium, showing that such deviations tend to self-correct over time. Together, these findings and methods provide a comprehensive view of the complex economic landscape in Nigeria.
