ABSTRACT
The main issues on which this study is weighted on are issues which are revolved round major macroeconomic variables of both the agricultural and the oil eras in Nigeria. These issues stem from a boom in natural resource that affects a countries economy in two ways: first by causing a resource movement from one sector to another and secondly by inducing a spending effect that appreciates the real exchange rate and by extension the general economic performance. This condition (or paradox) in literature is called the Dutch disease and its major syndromes amongst others considered therein in this project work are unemployment, real exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), per capita income and external debt profile. Specifically, the study examined the relationships between oil export and agricultural export performance and the consequent impact on the Nigeria economy. In trying to achieve this objective, a robust and stabilizing error correction method approach was adopted for the data analysis. Some statistical tools were employed to determine the statistical significant relationship between these variables. The analysis started with the test for unit root, stationary and co-integration of Nigeria’s time series data. The empirical study found that the data were stationary and co-integrated. The multiple regression results showed a significant but negative relationship between oil era and the agricultural era and the macroeconomic impact on Nigeria’s economy. These results showed a vast econometric analyses and underlying happenings therein. Our findings and conclusions saw that there is need for the Nigerian government to not only diversify the monolithic economy from the oil sector into manufacturing, assembling, tourism, solid minerals, open free trade zones but also revive the agriculture sector with a long-term plan with a inclusion of the private sector entrepreneurs through incentive to farmers, improved seedlings, subsidized mechanization, positive trade policies and agreements, export wavers from stamp duties, export bonuses, managed exchange rates, reduction in rates of loans, advances and increased loan tenure from financial bodies and other direct fiscal incentives. These will give a quick and smooth take-off to the rebirth of a new agricultural boom and consequently address the negated macroeconomic situation that is currently being experienced in Nigeria. If this econometric results and recommendations are followed, Nigeria and her economy will be heading the path of a phenomenal growth to admiration of the whole world. The future and stability of the Nigeria’s economy simple lies in her agricultural strength.
Keywords: Agricultural export, oil export, oil price, real exchange, export prices, Dutch disease, unemployment, per capital income, gross domestic products, debt profile, OPEC quota e.t.c.
