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ABSTRACT
The economic effects of climate change on Nigeria's agricultural productivity are examined in this study. The research utilises estimation and simulation methodologies to examine the effects of climate change on Nigeria's total agricultural production from 1970 to 2015, which includes crop, livestock, forestry, and fish production. The study employs a disaggregated agricultural output model that was established through co-integration analysis, error correction mechanisms, and impulse response functions (IRFs) in order to acknowledge the diverse effects of climate change on these discrete agricultural sectors. The results show that over both short- and long-term times, climate-related factors have a considerable impact on both the total and particular agricultural outputs. The study assesses the elasticity of individual agricultural outputs with respect to climate change in order to capture the asymmetric impacts of climate change on the different agricultural sectors within Nigeria. As expected, the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity differs depending on the output/product. Variations in CO2 emissions have a statistically significant negative impact on the total and individual components of agricultural output, with the exception of forestry. On the other hand, fluctuations in precipitation show a strong positive influence on the total and each of the agricultural production's subcomponents. Nonetheless, over the course of the study period, it was found that the influence of temperature was relatively mild. These findings make it clear that one of the main factors influencing agricultural productivity is climate change. As a result, the report makes several recommendations, including that the Nigerian government give priority to agriculture and enact laws intended to lessen the negative consequences of the present climate crisis, with a particular emphasis on CO2 emissions. It also says that immediate action is required to raise rural farmers' knowledge of appropriate weather and climate risk management and the sustainable use of weather and climate data for agricultural production in Nigeria.
