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ABSTRACT
In recent times, instability in exchange rate is noted to lead to many undesirable outcomes (including macroeconomic and productivity gains) in the Nigerian economy. In this study, the effect of exchange rate volatility, trade openness and commodity export price on agricultural export from Nigeria is examined. Agricultural export is measured as the summation of all annual agricultural commodity exports in real terms while exchange rate volatility is measured using an exponential Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity framework. Data used covered the period 1981 to 2022 and a dynamic structure was devised for the empirical analysis using the autoregressive distributed lags estimation framework. Results from the study show that exchange rate volatility has a negative short run impact, but a positive and significant long run impact on agricultural exports in Nigeria, while the effects of exchange rate itself was fund to be negative both in the short run and long run. Both trade openness and agricultural export prices are also found to have no significant long run impact on agricultural exports in Nigeria although the short run effects are significant. Thus, the study revealed that agricultural export in Nigeria responds more promptly to exchange rate volatility than changes in the price of exports. The study therefore recommends the need to stem the volatility of the naira exchange rate in order to manage agricultural export in Nigeria, knowing fully well its performance responds more promptly to exchange rate volatility than changes in the price of export regime in Nigeria.
