EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND THE GROWTH OF NIGERIA ECONOMY

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ABSTRACT

The study examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on Nigerian economic growth over the period of 1985 – 2020 using variables such as inflation, export rate, exchange rate volatility and broad money supply. The study adopted the expost-facto research design and uses the OLS econometric technique and descriptive statistics for the empirical estimation of the model. The findings of the study revealed that exchange rate has a negative significant impact on real gross domestic product in the short and long run in Nigeria. It was discovered that export has an insignificant impact on real gross domestic product in the short run but has a positive significant impact on real gross domestic product in the long run in Nigeria. The results also showed that exchange rate volatility has a positive insignificant impact on real gross domestic product in the short run though in the long run it was found to have a negative significant effect on real gross domestic product in Nigeria. It also revealed that inflation rate has no significant effect on real gross domestic product in the short and long run in Nigeria. Lastly, money supply has a significant negative impact on real gross 10 domestic product in the short run but it was found to have a positive significant impact on real gross domestic product in the long run in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends that Government should come up with an appropriate monetary measure to ensure exchange rate stability by judiciously managing foreign exchanges for effective economic performance in Nigeria. It also suggests that, the Nigerian monetary authority should come up with policy strategy to manage money supply in circulation effectively to stem the tildes of exchange rate volatility as well as encourage foreign investment in the Nigerian economy. Also, the Nigerian government should consider review its flexible exchange rate system by intervening when necessary to prevent extreme fluctuations. And also, Government should maintain an adequate level of foreign exchange reserves which is crucial for managing exchange rate volatility. Lastly, Nigerian government should adopt export promotion strategies to develop its industrial sector to mitigate the adverse effect of exchange rate volatility.

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