DEVELOPMENT OF AN INDUSTRIAL SAFETY MODEL FOR A DRILLING RIG AND PREDICTIONS OF THE SAFETY IMPLICATIONS.

ABSTRACT This study entails the development of an industrial safety model for a drilling rig and the predictions of the safety implications using regression analysis and forecasting techniques. The sample data as regard accident(s) occurrences and its associated cost in naira obtained from the company’s management covered the month of January, 2017 to December, 2018 operations. A scatter-gram of the accident(s) number against incurred cost of the ongoing safety program was generated using Minitab 17.1 Software in other to determine the curve of best fit for the ongoing safety program. The pattern displayed by the scatter - gram was best fitted with a power function which describe the relationship between the two variables. Furthermore, auto – regressive model was also applied to the accident data, which factored in any seasonal effects present. The obtained forecasted values from the auto – regressive was also evaluated to have a MFE value of 0.03; MAE value of 1.36 and MSE of 2.90. The accident(s) numbers forecasted for 2019 – 2030 from the auto – regressive model was used in predicting what the costs would be for these years in focus. Hence, the total cost of accident occurrences in the year 2019/2030 was estimated to be N10,241,657.73. The expected amount to be expended on accidents each year has a declining trend pattern. Therefore, the ongoing safety program has a great effect in reducing accidents occurrences in the work place for the next twelve years in view.