CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURE, AND POVERTY IN THE GAMBIA

ABSTRACT

This study examines the impact of climate change on agricultural production and poverty in the Gambia using data on five crops and livestock production at the national over the period 1961 – 2018 and cross-section observation of 13,281 nationally representative households. In doing this, the effect of temperature and rainfall on the mean and variability of crop and livestock production are examined. In addition, the effect of climate change on household per capita consumption expenditure (poverty) is analyzed. The stochastic production function technique is employed to estimate the effects of temperature and rainfall on the mean and variability of crop and livestock production. The heteroscedastic probit model is also utilized to examine the impact of different climate measures on poverty. The choice of these methodologies was informed by the fact that they were well suited for the study's objectives. The Breuch-Pagen test and Lagrange Multiplier test were carried out to ascertain the existence of heteroscedasticity in models, which is one of the conditions for using stochastic production and heteroscedastic probit specifications. The empirical results from both the crop and livestock production models revealed that climate change significantly affects agricultural production in the Gambia. Although the impact on specific models differs by climate change measures, significant effects on average livestock production were observed with respect to temperature and rainfall. Whereas harvested area and rainfall are risk-increasing inputs, temperature is a risk-decreasing input in crop production. For livestock production, livestock population is a risk-reducing input while rainfall is riskincreasing input. The empirical findings of the heteroscedastic specification of the poverty impact of climate change revealed strong implications for household poverty in the Gambia. This evidence was confirmed by the significant effects of climate change on the likelihood of household per capita consumption expenditure falling below the national poverty threshold. In light of the empirical evidence, the study recommends subsector-specific adaptation strategies and interventions to minimize the effects of climate change on agricultural production and eventually on the livelihood of the poor.