A WEIBULL ANALYSIS OF THE RELIABILITY OF A CEMENT MILL STATION IN NIGERIA

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ABSTRACT

The aim of the study was to access the reliability of three cement mills in Dangote Cement Plc. Ibese, Ogun State, Nigeria. The reliability was to show how well the cement mills performed in the period under review and also to make a comparison of their performance. The methodology adopted in this study for the reliability analysis was the Weibull distribution by applying the least-square approach to make the Weibull plots and the analysis was carried out as a binary-state system. This study considered the two-parameter Weibull function in its analysis by estimating the shape and scale parameters while setting the location parameter to zero. Since estimation of reliability using the least-square approach of the Weibull distribution function is only appropriate at a particular point (time), the reliability in this analysis was estimated at the mean time between failure (MTBF). For all three mills, there was a consistently low reliability with the highest been cement mill C with a reliability of 0.526. Cement mill A had the lowest reliability of 0.418 while cement mill B had a reliability of 0.461. These reliabilities were all estimated at the mean time between failures of the corresponding mills. The mean time between failures (MTBF) were found to be 473.01hrs for cement mill A, 362.98hrs for cement mill B and 276.09hrs for cement mill C. It was observed that the mill with the highest MTBF had the lowest reliability which was cement mill A while the mill with the lowest MTBF had the highest reliability which was cement mill C. The shape parameter estimated for all three mills had values above 1 which showed that the mills all had an increasing failure rate also known as wear out failure. These low reliabilities and increasing failure rate on the mills were an indication of improper maintenance method, wrong or faulty equipment installation or poor equipment operation.

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